I used to think that peak-oil would pre-empt the development of global warming, but peak credit now seems to have pre-empted peak oil. I love this quote from the ‘collapsnik’ Dmitri Orlov.
An American’s two greatest enemies are his house and his car.
If you want to read more of Orlov, who likens the current situation in the USA to the collapse of the Soviet Union which he lived through and keenly observed, his salon is ‘Club Orlov‘ and one of the copies of his book “Thriving in the Age of Collapse” is on Google books. Perhaps the New Alchemy Institute was just 35 years ahead of its time.
Fast food or fast cars? 33% of the 2009/2010 US corn crop will go to make ethanol.
Medical News Today reported that using a carbon isotope to identify the type of feed eaten by the animals whose meat goes into hamburgers, and the oil used to cook fries, researchers were able to establish that nearly all fast food consumed in the US relies on corn agriculture. Researchers bought over 480 servings of hamburgers, chicken sandwiches and fries from some of the biggest chains in the US: McDonald’s, Burger King, and Wendy’s throughout the US. Out of the 480 samples, only 12 servings of beef did not show traces of the carbon isotope signature for corn.
Mini USA is trialling an all-electric Mini, though only 500 will be made and you lose the back seat to batteries. 200hp(!), 156 mile range, 3 hour charge. The specs (pdf). Bumper sticker I’m waiting to see:
My other car is a WrightSpeed Ariel.
Oil demand is expected to contract “sharply” this year – by all of 1/2 of 1% – according to a Reuters poll of 10 analysts, banks and industry groups. I’m not sure I take much comfort from a drop this size.
The largest drop in demand will come from developed economies, where recessions are predicted to be most severe. OECD demand is forecast to fall by more than 1.1 million bpd to 46.54 million bpd in 2009, the Reuters poll showed. [ie. 2.4%].
Carbon prices are falling… illustrating the efficient functioning of markets.
An EU permit to emit one tonne of CO2 cost €10.15 (£8.86) at the end of last week, down from €28.50 in mid-2008… The most bearish experts are now predicting that the price could fallas low as €9 as global recession, reduced manufacturing output, and the concomitant reduction in consumption of fossil fuels, feeds through to reduce the need for carbon emissions permits.
Carbon tax is the thinking man’s market solution…
Many economists argue that painful though it might be to consumers, the best way to address climate change is to put a “price” on carbon dioxide and other carbon-based emissions, thereby making fossil fuels more expensive and alternative energy sources more competitive… Over the last several years, Gilbert Metcalf, an economist at Tufts University, has calculated the costs and consequences of such a policy… From both an efficiency and an administrative perspective, a carbon tax is a better approach. I think there is a clear consensus on that among economists… The political momentum clearly favors cap-and-trade… A $20 tax per ton of carbon dioxide adds about 15 percent to the cost of electricity. For coal-fired electricity it will be a lot more. It will more than double the price of coal–about a 40 percent increase in the price of coal-generated electricity.
Airlines are researching the use of bio-fuels for running jet engines – a vital development for their long-term business plans.
On December 30th Air New Zealand will test-fly a Boeing 747-400, one of whose four engines will be powered by a blend of jatropha oil and jetfuel… Virgin Atlantic flew a Boeing 747-400 in February with one engine running on a 20% mix of biofuel… On January 7th Continental Airlines plans to fly a Boeing 737-800 with one engine powered, in part, by a biofuel derived from a blend of algae and jatropha oils.
Governments are directing fiscal stimulus programmes at renewables.
The French government created a new feed-in electricity tariff that will subsidize the use of solar power. Under the plan, which mirrors similar incentives already available in Spain and Germany, electricity producers that invest in solar will be paid an above-market rate for the power they generate. By 2020, France hopes to increase the supply of domestic solar energy 400-fold and produce 23 percent of its entire electric output from renewables, compared with the current 10.4 percent figure… The European Union is also getting into the act. The European Commission announced a €200 billion ($252 billion) economy recovery plan that includes targeted investments in carbon reduction as a linchpin to reignite Europe’s struggling economy… Denmark’s Vestas, for example, manufactures wind turbines in the US and could be well placed to profit from government investment in clean technology. Iberian renewable energy producers Iberdrola Renovables (EBER.F) and EDP Renovaveis (EDPR.LS)—already America’s second- and third-largest wind energy producers, respectively — similarly stand to benefit from federal assistance for renewables.
A Cape Cod windfarm has passed environmental review, over the Kennedy family’s objections.
The wind farm would cover 24 square miles — roughly the size of Manhattan — five miles off Cape Cod. From the shore, the 130 turbines, each 440 feet tall, will be visible half an inch above the horizon on clear days… The project would cost more than $1 billion… the project would ultimately supply 75 percent of the electricity for Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard…
Wind is becoming significant despite it’s inherent variability.
Although wind generates only about 1% of all electricity globally, it provides a respectable portion in several European countries: 20% in Denmark, 10% in Spain and about 7% in Germany. Capacity in America jumped by 45% last year to reach nearly 17 gigawatts (GW). China has nearly doubled its capacity every year since 2004. Globally, wind power installations are expected to triple from 94GW at the end of 2007 to nearly 290GW in 2012, according to BTM Consult, a Danish market-research firm.
Despite the NIMBY attitude, the USA is becoming a serious wind player.
Last year America ramped up wind-power capacity to 25 gigawatts (GW), overtaking the previous leader, Germany, according to new data from the Global Wind Energy Council. America added 8.4GW of installed power in 2008, more than any other country. China is also investing heavily in wind power, nearly doubling its capacity for the fourth year running. Global capacity grew by 29% last year, the highest annual increase for six years.
Bad news on climate. Ice is melting faster than the worst-case IPCC scenarios.
More than 2 trillion tons of land ice in Greenland, Antarctica and Alaska have melted since 2003, according to new NASA satellite data… The water melting from Greenland in the past five years would fill up about 11 Chesapeake Bays… and the Greenland melt seems to be accelerating… adding about half a millimeter of sea level rise a year… Between Greenland, Antarctica and Alaska, melting land ice has raised global sea levels about one-fifth of an inch in the past five years… The recent [Arctic] sea-ice retreat is larger than in any of the (19) IPCC [climate] models…
Scientists are getting more pessimistic about halting global warming as trends accelerate.
Garnaut, a professorial fellow in economics at Melbourne University, said: “Achieving the objective of 450ppm would require tighter constraints on emissions than now seem likely in the period to 2020…” Many small island states are predicted to be swamped by rising seas with global warming triggered by carbon levels as low as 400ppm.
and more (from the same conference)
Climate-change researchers have found that air temperatures in the [arctic] region are higher than would be normally expected during the autumn because the increased melting of the summer Arctic sea ice is accumulating heat in the ocean. The phenomenon, known as Arctic amplification, was not expected to be seen for at least another 10 or 15 years… In the Beaufort Sea, north of Alaska, for instance, near-surface air temperatures were more than 7C higher than normal for this time of year…
Guardian is saying that evidence is sufficient for liability to be assessed in global warming suits. This will at least get the insurance companies’ attention.
People affected by worsening storms, heatwaves and floods could soon be able to sue the oil and power companies they blame for global warming… Peter Roderick, director of the Climate Justice programme, said the most likely route for seeking damages would be tort cases, which deal with civil wrongs… However, Stephen Tromans, an environmental law barrister, said establishing causation would be one of the main difficulties… There may also be grounds for a case on the basis that firms have tried to misinform the public – as in US cases against tobacco firms – about the effects of their business.
Let us not begin the water wars.
China’s diversion of the waters of a river originating in Tibet to its water-scarce areas could leave India’s northeast parched… This water diversion scheme will draw from the waters of the Yalong, Dadu and Jinsha rivers, which rise in the Tibetan plateau, and channel them to the Yellow River. The aim of the project is to provide water for human use, including farming and industry in China’s water-scarce areas in the north and northwest… Once completed, the water diversion scheme is expected to transfer over 40 billion cubic meters of water annually to China’s water scarce areas… China’s reluctance to pay heed to concerns of lower riparian countries is evident from the fact that it is unwilling to share even hydrological data on flood waters with India; this despite the fact that it is obliged under an agreement with India to do so…
The great Pacific plastic soup.
Discovered in 1997 by American sailor Charles Moore, what is also called the great Pacific garbage patch is now alarming some with its ever-growing size and possible impact on human health. The “patch” is in fact two massive, linked areas of circulating rubbish… Although the boundaries change, it stretches from about 500 nautical miles off the coast of California, across the northern Pacific to near the coast of Japan… Moore, an oceanographer who has made the study of the patch his full-time occupation, believes there is about 100 million tonnes of plastic circulating in the northern Pacific – or about 2.5 per cent of all plastic items made since 1950…