US Election Recap

Well, Barack Hussein Obama is in - the 44th President of the Unite States - with a solid Democratic majority in the Congress and the Senate, and the right to appoint 2 or 3 new Supreme Court justices for life. When Ohio voted Democratic for the first time since Lincoln the race was all but over.

Bush, characteristically, told him to go out and party

‘What an awesome night for you, your family and your supporters. You are about to go on one of the great journeys of life. Congratulations and go enjoy yourself.’ - George W Bush

Luckily, Obama appears to have more of a grip on reality…

For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime — two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after the children fall asleep and wonder how they’ll make the mortgage or pay their doctors’ bills or save enough for their child’s college education. There’s new energy to harness, new jobs to be created, new schools to build, and threats to meet, alliances to repair. - Barack Obama victory speech

Other world leaders were also mindful of the serious challenges facing the new President - banking crises, falling housing prices, looming food and energy shortages, global warming, misguided military adventures, domestic healthcare reform and a recession likely to be deeper than any since WWII…

In defeat McCain was unexpectedly gracious, recalling something of his pre-2000 character, but it looks as though post-election the Republican party will split between the Palin “god, guns and gays” wing and the “fiscal conservative” wing; perhaps never to meet up again.

The final results this time were remarkably close to those forecast by reputable pollsters, despite the usual mis-information campaign. Princeton Election Consortium had the following electoral map going into the night, even picking the ‘too close to call’ states of IN, MO, NC, GA and FL and forecasting Obama with 353 electoral votes.

080904 Princeton Forecast.png

The final map with two as yet uncalled races - McCain up by 6,000 in MO and Obama up 12,000 in SC - shows Obama with 349, likely to be 364 if SC goes his way. Princeton got only Indiana wrong, where the Obama ‘ground game’ was worth a few unexpected points.


080904 DKos US Election.png

Obama will also end up with a popular majority (ignoring the anachronistic allocation of electoral votes) of 52.4%. These are historic majorities due to, as Krugman says, a national shift to the Democrats of about 8% across all the states. There were the usual problems with faulty electronic vote machines, underserved (poor) areas, and illegal voter barring; but these were not enough to flip either Ohio or Florida this time.

Obama and the Democrats’ victory arguably gives him enough political “capital” to act effectively with respect to the many problems facing the USA - inequality, health care, infrastructure, education, savings - as well as recover something of the historically favorable US reputation overseas. And we know from his campaign policies that he takes good advice. On the other hand, the inertia and corruption revolving around Washington DC has brought many a well-intentioned politician and political crusade to a stand-still.

Comments 4

  1. Paul wrote:

    Bush: Can I Stop Being President Now?

    WASHINGTON—In a press conference held this morning on the White House lawn, President Bush formally asked the assembled press corps and members of his own administration if, in light of today’s election, he could stop being the president now. “So it’s over, right? Can I stop being president now?” Bush said after striding to the podium in a Texas Rangers cap and flannel shirt, carrying a fully packed suitcase. “Let’s just say I’m done as of now. Presidency over.” When informed by Washington Post reporter David Broder that his presidency would continue through early January, Bush stared at him quizzically, sighed, and shuffled silently back into the White House.

    Posted 05 Nov 2008 at 3:35 pm
  2. Paul wrote:

    Also: Black Man Given Nation’s Worst Job

    WASHINGTON—African-American man Barack Obama, 47, was given the least-desirable job in the entire country Tuesday when he was elected president of the United States of America. In his new high-stress, low-reward position, Obama will be charged with such tasks as completely overhauling the nation’s broken-down economy, repairing the crumbling infrastructure, and generally having to please more than 300 million Americans and cater to their every whim on a daily basis. As part of his duties, the black man will have to spend four to eight years cleaning up the messes other people left behind. The job comes with such intense scrutiny and so certain a guarantee of failure that only one other person even bothered applying for it.

    Posted 05 Nov 2008 at 3:37 pm
  3. Paul wrote:

    So, DeLong has a chart showing the counties that voted more Republican in 2008 than 2004. Aside from Arizona and Alaska, understandable for home game reasons, the only people to fall for the “terrorist socialist” rhetoric had something in common and it wasn’t a love of tax cuts…

    Republican vote gains.

    Posted 06 Nov 2008 at 5:45 pm
  4. Paul wrote:

    The reason Palin looked so annoyed at the concession speech was that she was expressly forbidden to speak.

    Posted 06 Nov 2008 at 5:48 pm

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